Month: September 2022

A great example of a bitcoin price model that quantifies the potential value based on its actual function is the Stock-to-flow, created by Plan B for Bitcoin.  Being the first cryptocurrency and a completely novel technology it was very difficult to model the potential impact of Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value. Stock-to-flow focuses on scarcity as the… Continue reading Quantifying the Solution

One of the simplest ways to evaluate interest in a given cryptocurrency project is using Google search sentiment, which is available via the Google Trends feature. This enables you to look at the historic interest in a search term, and see when the peak of interest was reached. Google Trends uses an index measure, where 100 is… Continue reading Google Trends

As part of the description of how a cryptocurrency project intends to solve the specific problem identified, should be reference to data that quantifies both the problem and the solution. Data that quantifies the problem enables you to get a sense of the size of the opportunity and is useful for evaluating before a project is live.… Continue reading Usage & adoption metrics

If you are investing your hard-earned money, you need to have confidence in your own decisions but this doesn’t mean you cannot refer to the opinions of others to help validate the claims in a white paper or live project. As the recent WallStreetBets drama highlighted, forums like Reddit can rival professional analysts in terms… Continue reading Standing on the shoulders of giants

Bitcoin’s whitepaper is only nine pages long. Page one is dedicated to articulating the what/why, with the rest of the document – aside from the conclusion – explaining exactly how Bitcoin solves the double spend problem. Those eight pages essentially validate the headline claims, and the devil is always in the detail. A cryptocurrency may… Continue reading Validation

A good place to start with Fundamental Analysis of a cryptocurrency is asking the simple question – what problem is it trying to solve?  This may sound obvious, but it is very easy to be seduced by complex language and ambition, without thinking about what a cryptocurrency does and what real world problem it solves. If… Continue reading What problem is a cryptocurrency trying to solve?

What you’ll learn A definition of Fundamental Analysis A framework for analysing future value of crypto projects Ways to quantify ambition & performance of crypto projects The importance of lateral thinking in investing Investing in a cryptocurrency is a very different discipline from Trading in it. Trading attempts to profit from short term Technical Analysis; interpreting… Continue reading What is Fundamental Analysis?